An analysis of politics in transition

Gaaki Kigambo Dec 07, His soaring popularity comes from his strong repertoire of protest music that forcefully speaks truth to power. It is a battle he is prepared for in any way possible, including exchanging punches if need be.

An analysis of politics in transition

Popular demands that precipitated a three year-long protest, which started in Oromia in and then spread to the Amhara and other regions, remain unaddressed.

The popular protests signaled a regime in crisis. Nowhere is this well archived than the reporting by this magazine over the last six years.

The economy, once touted as the envy of the world, started experiencing a downward spiral.

An analysis of politics in transition

Beginning in Decembertwo months into the state of emergency that was declared to suppress the protests, the situation got further complicated with rising tensions between regional states — first between the Amhara and Tigray regions and currently between An analysis of politics in transition Oromia and Somali regional states.

Escalating Tensions For years, Oromo residents near the regional frontiers have complained of an aggressive attempt by the Somali Regional State to forcefully dispossess their land. Until recently their grievances fell on deaf ears. The conflicts escalated in February and March as incursions and raids conducted by the Somali Special Police the Liyu Policealso known as the Liyu Hayil, and militia intensified along the border between the two regional states stretching from Chinaksan in the East near the border with Somaliland and Moyale near the border with Kenya.

In addition to its assault on Oromo civilians in Oromia, members and sympathizers of the Liyu Police are currently attacking and expelling Oromo residents and merchants from the Somali region. As a result, hundreds of Oromos have been killed and tens of thousands displaced from their homes in the Somali region.

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Authorities in the Oromia region have begun sounding alarm about an all-out war of aggression by the notorious Somali Special Police. In a more ominous development, officials from the two states are engaged in an unprecedented war of words, particularly on social media.

Their tangling is not limited to words. The security organs of the two states have been battling each other over the territories along the common border. All of this is happening under the watchful eyes of the federal army and security forces, which are now ordered by the Prime Minister to man the common border between the two states and all major roads in Oromia.

Oromo residents in the affected areas question the neutrality of the federal army, particularly the impartiality of Tigrean kingmakers in the ruling EPRDF coalition, and not a few accuse them of abetting and enabling the still-ongoing Liyu Police incursions into undisputed Oromo territories.

Critics contend that Tigrayan generals and intelligence officials, the current de facto rulers of Ethiopia, have two overarching objectives for empowering and enabling the Liyu Police and leaders of the Somali region: The development risks provoking a total breakdown of law and order on the peripheries, which can gradually creep toward the center—leading to state collapse.

Signs of Collapse Predicting state collapse, a complex phenomenon with multiple causes and effectsis never easy. The resulting political instability now threatens to bring the economy to a standstill.

Similarly, a string of international media headlines and expert analyses warn of a growing political crisis. Perhaps acting out of this fear, Ethiopia declared a state of emergency in Octoberwhich lasted for nearly ten months. Noting the complete lack of political rights, Freedom House has consistently rated Ethiopia as Not Free — with a score of only 14 out of in its report.

And all states that collapsed had one thing in common: The breakdown of state-society relations marks a milestone in a trajectory towards state collapse. Other credible risk assessments underscore this same bleak picture for Ethiopia. Recently, Christopher Clapham, a long-time Africa watcher, noted that Ethiopia is both the anchor and the main source of the perennial instability that has haunted the Horn of Africa region for decades.

Should the Ethiopian state implode, as all indicators point toward, the whole region, where a quarter of a billion souls eke out an already precarious existence, would go down with it.China has outmaneuvered the United States in recent years, particularly with regard to trade, says President-Elect Donald J.

Trump. In a speech announcing his candidacy, the. Thus, critical to the analysis of social cohesion are the ways in which politics is transforming in the context of Nepal’s political transition. When the civil war ended with a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in November , Nepal showed.

In Afghanistan, the current chaotic transition period has not allowed national ethnic and religious communities, like the Shi’a Hazaras and Sunni Pashtuns, to build shared perspectives. Politics of Liberia takes place in a framework of a presidential representative democratic republic modeled on the government of the United States, whereby the President is the head of state and head of government; unlike the United States, however, Liberia is a unitary state as opposed to a federation and has a pluriform multi-party system rather than the two-party system that characterizes.

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